Dating an investment banker anonymous


The best traders I’ve ever worked with think and speak in the latter way, considering new possibilities as markets evolve.Some parts of this remind me of Nassim Taleb The habits of mind Silver’s book encourages are not dissimilar to Nassim Taleb’s empirical skepticism, although they differ greatly in style and in points of emphasis.[1] Readers who study at an International Baccalaureate (IB) high school will be familiar with the “Theory of Knowledge” course.It’s a really great idea for a course, but I have yet to meet anyone who thought the experience of the course lived up to the idea that inspired it.But television rewards ‘bold stances’ and ‘big ideas’ of the type The Mc Laughlin Group traffics in, while largely ignoring more thoughtful approaches.Silver labels and criticizes the “Big Idea” mindset that passes for political commentary on television in favor of a more modest, probabilistic, and empirical “Small Idea” mindset.Stay tuned as Consumerist’s current and future content finds its home as a part of the Consumer Reports brand.



Silver – among the most widely admired public forecasters of political outcomes – eviscerates this type of ‘prediction,’ citing data that shows these commentators make accurate predictions no more often than would a random coin toss.Small ideas, nuanced, uncertain, and modest, however, make for poor television ratings.But Silver does have a Big Idea himself For complex, hard to predict phenomena[3], Silver explains his preferred method, based on a probability theorem attributed to an 18 Century English minister Thomas Bayes.His big idea is for us to move away from “I have the explanation and I know what’s going to happen,” to a different way of understanding the world characterized by “I can articulate a range of outcomes and attach meaningful probabilities to the possible outcomes.” Over time, as we refine our data gathering and multifaceted models, we can move our small ideas forward and become ‘less wrong’ about the world.

In the investment world the former style of traders – the one’s with big ideas and certainty – may have a good run of success, but generally get flushed out when markets turn.

In both cases – success or failure – we’re prone to adopt an uncritical approach to the right level of responsibility for outcomes. Efficient market hypothesis as an illustration of the Bayesian approach Although Silver gives numerous examples of his Bayesian probabilistic approach to problems with numbers, one of his best examples is purely textual, on the efficient market hypothesis.